when is it a good time to lock a rate when buying a house in California or Arizona

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Positive

Housing Starts (New Home Construction)

June's Housing Starts report was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing a 4.6% jump in new home groundbreakings. A secondary reading that tracks newly issued permits that are needed before future starts rose 0.2%. Both were stronger than expected. However, the increase in overall starts was fueled by multi-family projects such as apartments and condos. Single-family groundbreakings, which are much more relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates, fell by the same 4.6% last month. This is a sign of weakness in the relevant portion of the housing sector, allowing us to label the report favorable for mortgage pricing.

Medium

Neutral

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment closed this week’s packed economic calendar. They announced the preliminary reading for July stood at 61.8, up from May’s final reading of 60.7. The increase means surveyed consumers feel better about their own financial and employment situations than they did last month and are likely to spend more. While the headline number is bad news for rates, a secondary reading that reflects opinions about inflation in the future came in lower than expected. The two readings seem to offset each other, preventing them from having an impact on this morning’s rates.

Medium

Unknown

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

Next week’s calendar is much lighter than this week with a small handful of relevant economic reports scheduled for release, none of which are nearly as important or considered to be key as some of this week’s data was. There is also a Treasury auction midweek that may come into play during afternoon trading one day. The week starts with the release of the moderately important Leading Economic Indicators late Monday morning. Fed Chairman Powell has a speaking engagement Tuesday at a banking conference in Washington DC, but because this falls within the Fed’s pre-FOMC quiet period it is highly unlikely he will say anything that is relevant to mortgage rates. Look for details on all of next week’s scheduled activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Housing Starts (New Home Construction)

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

Float / Lock Recommendation